Rate Lock Advisory

Sunday, October 4th

This week has only two relevant monthly economic reports scheduled for release. In addition to the data, there are also two Treasury auctions and the release of the minutes from last month's FOMC meeting. There doesn’t appear to be any major headlines from the Middle East this weekend that are likely to influence bond trading tomorrow morning. That said, the recent extreme volatility in the bond market may continue, especially after seeing Friday morning’s post-Employment report gains erased and then some before last week came to close. That should keep the caution level high since there are not many events scheduled to drive trading.

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Bonds

Market Closed

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Dow

Market Closed

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NASDAQ

Market Closed

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

ISM Service Index

Starting this week's economic calendar will be the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing index, also known as the services index, at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This is the sister release of last week’s ISM manufacturing index. Tomorrow’s version is expected to show a small decline from August's 54.4 reading, indicating the service sector slowed slightly last month. Favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates would be a smaller reading, signaling the service sector may be slowing more than predicted.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

The next scheduled event will come Wednesday afternoon when results of the day's 10-year Treasury Note auction are announced at 1:00 PM ET. These auctions don't directly impact rates, but they do influence broader bond market sentiment. If there is a decent demand from investors, we should see strength in bonds during afternoon trading and mortgage rates possibly revise lower because rates are based on long-term debt. However, a lackluster interest from investors- particularly international buyers, may cause rates to move higher. This process will be repeated Thursday when 30-year Bonds are auctioned.

Medium

Unknown

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Also Wednesday afternoon is the 2:00 PM release of the minutes from last month's FOMC meeting. These may move the markets or could be a non-factor, depending on what they show. One key point traders are looking for is how many more rate hikes the Fed will make over the next few meetings, especially at the remaining two of this year. There was much debate about whether or not they will make another quarter-point hike at one of those meetings, but that was before recent favorable inflation news and a weaker than expected Employment report last Friday. It is worth noting though, the last FOMC meeting was followed by revised economic predictions and a press conference with Fed Chair Warsh. This means the likelihood of seeing a significant surprise in the minutes is relatively low.

Medium

Unknown

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)

The final relevant economic release comes late Friday morning when the University of Michigan posts their Index of Consumer Sentiment for October. It will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which helps us measure consumer willingness to spend. If a consumer is more confident in their own financial situation, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. On the other hand, if they are growing more concerned about their job security or finances, they probably will delay making that large purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and, therefore, can impact the financial markets. It is expected to show an unchanged reading of 48.1. A much lower would be considered favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates because waning consumer spending usually translates into slower economic growth.

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Unknown

none

Overall, no day stands out as a good candidate for most important day for rates. The same can be said about a particularly calm day. The FOMC minutes aren't likely to yield any big surprises and the week’s two economic releases are considered to be only moderately important to the markets. It may end up being Wednesday afternoon's auction results announcement that draws the strongest reaction in the bond market and mortgage pricing. While it appears to be a light week in terms of expected movement in mortgage rates, it could be something unplanned that may cause a big move in rates. Therefore, it would still be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.